Athena Learning Achievement Estimation

Junior Certificate Reflection of Learning Achievement

We are providing schools with results for each Junior Cycle student  to reflect their learning achievements over the past 3 years.

 

These results are calculated using a student's previous results and are based on an algorithm we have built and tested using over 10,000 previous Junior Certificate results.

 

These results are unbiased and the best estimate available for what a student would have achieved in the Junior Certificate exam. They can be seen as a reflection of their learning achievements to date.

You can sign up here.

What output will the school receive?

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How do i sign up?

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Statistical Model

 

For the purpose of building our academic tracking software, the Athena Tracker, we have done extensive testing on different statistical models to see what best predicts the Junior and Leaving Certificate results. For Junior Certificate, we have tested this model on over 10,000 students' results from last year. 

How accurate are these estimates?

 

When tested on a dataset of over 10,000 of last year’s Junior Certificate results, our statistical model accurately predicted 68% of grades, predicted 97% within one grade and predicted 100% within two grades of the actual grade. The table to the right shows these levels compared with using mock results only as a predictor or using average of all previous results. These accuracy percentages are all based on the same group of over 10,000 of last year's Junior Cycle students.

This describes the level of accuracy of using three different methods to predict the Junior Cert results for over 10,000 students; using the mock results only, using the average of all students results and using the statistical model we have created.

What inputs will be used?

Mocks and all available in-house exams from 2nd and 3rd year are used as inputs in these estimates. 1st year results can also be included but will only be used in situations where other results are missing for students.

What if we are running an online assessment in May?

After we provide the estimate grade, we can then later combine these estimates with an online assessment result, in whatever proportion you advise.

What level will results be predicted at?

Results will be predicted at the level taken in the most recent exam, usually the mocks.

Summary Report - Spreadsheet showing grades for each student 

Student Report - document showing one page for each student